Are Mildura locals quietly shifting across the Murray? The numbers that made me look twice

 I went down a bit of a rabbit hole this week doing something I swore I wouldn’t do on a perfectly good day in Sunraysia… researching population growth stats.

But hear me out — population growth matters. It drives (or limits) everything from new shops and services, to housing, to tourism infrastructure, to whether we can justify better transport links and events that bring people to town.

Anyway, I pulled up the latest “regional population” reporting for 2023–24, expecting Mildura to be trucking along nicely, you know, steady as she goes, like most regional hubs.

And then I saw it...

Mildura’s population growth: ~0.1% (for 2023–24).

I actually re-read it. Twice.

Because when you zoom out, Regional Australia grew by 1.3% in 2023–24 — that’s 113,800 people added across regional areas.

So on face value, Mildura looked like it was growing at a rate well below the broader regional average.

That’s the bit that got me. Mildura feels busy. Houses are being lived in. Cafes are humming. Events are packed when the weather plays nice. So I thought… maybe there’s more going on under the surface.

So I did what any curious local does: I dug deeper

Because here’s the thing about Mildura: we’re not just a regional city, we’re also a border community, and the Murray isn’t just a river… it’s a state line.

So I looked across to the NSW side. Same river. Same sunrise. Same Woolies run. Same footy talk.

And I found this:

Wentworth Shire (LGA) grew by 1.52% in 2023–24, reaching an estimated 7,804 people. 

Now that number is not just higher than Mildura’s… it’s above the regional average too (1.52% vs 1.3%). 

And that’s where the penny dropped.

The question that wouldn’t leave me alone:

Are Mildura residents migrating to the NSW side of the Murray?

I’m not saying they definitely are, you’d need more detailed migration-by-origin data to prove that cleanly, but the contrast is enough to make you wonder:

If our growth is sluggish on the Victorian side, and it’s stronger just across the water, are we seeing a subtle “move across the bridge” pattern?

And if we are… why?

A few reasons this could be happening (even if people still “live Mildura”)

Here are some very plausible, very local explanations, and I’d love to hear which ones ring true for you:

1) Housing supply and land availability
If there are more new blocks, more approvals, or more affordable builds on the NSW side at the right time, people will go where they can actually get a home sorted.

2) Cost of living differences (real or perceived)
Sometimes it’s not even a massive difference — it’s the vibe that one side is “better value” for a first home, a bigger yard, or a newer estate.

3) Same lifestyle, different postcode
Let’s be honest: for many people, living in Buronga or Gol Gol still means you’re doing life in Mildura — schools, work, sport, shops, medical, the lot. You might “move to NSW”… but you still feel like you live in the Mildura region.

4) Cross-border flexibility
Border towns are unique. People can shift addresses without shifting their community. That makes it easier for population to “move” statistically even if the day-to-day heartbeat stays shared.

5) Momentum attracts momentum
Once an area is seen as growing — new builds, new families, new services, it becomes the place others look at next. Growth can be a bit like a campfire: it draws people in.

What does this mean for Sunraysia?

For me, it’s not a doom-and-gloom story.. it’s actually a fascinating regional puzzle.

Because if the NSW side is growing faster, that doesn’t automatically mean Mildura is “losing”. It might mean the broader Mildura–Wentworth cross-border region is shifting and expanding in a lopsided way.

But it does raise big questions for planning, services, investment, and how we talk about our region:

• Are we measuring growth the right way for a border community?

• Are we building enough housing on the Victorian side?

• Are we making it easy for people to stay (and for newcomers to choose us)?

• And what does it mean for tourism and infrastructure long-term?

Over to you

Alright — your turn.

Do you reckon people are moving across the Murray to Buronga/Gol Gol (or elsewhere in Wentworth Shire)?
If yes: what’s driving it? Housing? Price? Availability? Lifestyle? Something else entirely?

Drop your thoughts in the comments — because I’ve got a feeling the “real story” here lives in local experience, not just spreadsheets.