Geez… maybe we should’ve had an extra dam or two: Lake Victoria’s getting skinny again

Photo Credit - Peter MacDonald

If you’ve been anywhere near the Murray lately (or you’ve got a pump, a boat, or a bit of skin in the game), you’ve probably heard the same line a few times:

“Lake Victoria’s getting low.”

And yep... it is.

As at 13 February 2026, the SA River Murray Flow Report has Lake Victoria sitting at 366 GL, which is about 54% capacity.

Now, 54% isn’t “empty”… but it’s also not the comfy, cruise-control zone you want heading into hot weather and high demand.

When was Lake Victoria last full?

The closest “pretty-much-full” benchmark in the official weekly reporting I’m using here is 10 November 2021, when Lake Victoria was recorded at 670 GL - about 98% of its 677 GL full supply.

That’s basically as full as it gets in real-world river operations.

When was it last this low (or lower)?

If we’re talking “low enough to make people twitchy”, the drought-era numbers are the standout.

In the NSW Murray & Lower Darling Water Allocation Statement on 15 April 2020, Lake Victoria was reported at 34% full (about 230,000 ML), and a month later, 15 May 2020, it was still only 42% (about 285,000 ML). 

So yes, it’s been lower than today… but the point is: when it drops, it can drop a long way.

Now here’s the bit that makes you do the slow blink…

Photo Credit - Peter MacDonald

During the 2022–23 flood, a massive volume of water was sent out through the barrages and released to the ocean.

From 1 November 2022 to 28 February 2023, the SA River Murray Flow Report states 9,835 GL was released.

Read that again: 9,835 GL.

How many times could that have filled Lake Victoria?

Lake Victoria full supply is 677 GL.

So that flood-release volume is roughly:

9,835 ÷ 677 ≈ 14.5 Lake Victorias

Yep, about fourteen and a half Lake Victorias.

And how many Hume Dams?

Lake Hume’s capacity is about 3,005,157 ML (≈ 3,005 GL).

So:

9,835 ÷ 3,005 ≈ 3.3 Hume Dams

That’s around three and a quarter Humes worth of water.

So… why didn’t we “save” it?

Now before anyone fires up: I get it.

Floodwater isn’t a neat “capture it all” situation. You’ve got channel capacity, downstream constraints, levees, safety, timing, water quality, environmental needs... the whole messy reality of river management.

But still…

When you see Lake Victoria sitting at 366 GL (54%) right now,
and you remember that not long ago we had 9,835 GL heading out to sea,
it does make you wonder:

Geez… maybe we should have had an extra dam or two.

Not to stop floods. Not to “steal” the river. Not to pretend droughts don’t happen.

Just… a bit more storage and flexibility so we’re not always bouncing between “Where do we put all this water?!” and “Uh oh… Lake Vic’s dropping fast.”

The big question (and it’s a fair one)

Photo Credit - Peter MacDonald

If we can watch multiple-Hume-Dams-worth of water roll out the Murray Mouth in a flood year…

why do we keep ending up nervous about storages a few years later?

Maybe the answer is better river operations.
Maybe it’s better rules.
Maybe it’s off-stream storages.
Maybe it’s upgrading what we’ve already got.

Or maybe, just maybe it really is as simple as:

we could’ve used an extra dam or two.