If you’ve been anywhere near a vineyard, a sultana block, or a picker’s roster lately, you’ll know harvest time is all about timing. And right when everyone’s trying to thread the needle “bang” the forecast starts waving a big wet finger at the calendar.
For Mildura and surrounds, the next 7–10 days is looking like a mixed bag: heavy showers on Sunday 22 Feb, a couple more showery chances mid-week (Wed 25 Feb), then thunderstorm potential on Friday 27 Feb, with more showers around Saturday 28 Feb and Sunday 1 March.
Robinvale is telling a similar story, with heavy showers and a storm on Sunday 22 Feb and more cloud/showers lingering into the weekend.
Now, rain is usually a “beauty!” moment out here… but not when fruit is at peak ripeness and the machines (and people) are finally rolling.
Wine grapes: rain doesn’t just slow harvest — it can change the fruit
1) The obvious hit: delays, stop-start harvesting, and logistics blowouts
Once it rains, you don’t just pick the next morning like nothing happened. Wet canopies, muddy rows, bogged gear, and a higher chance of berry damage all make it harder to get fruit off cleanly, especially when wineries are already juggling intake capacity and tight scheduling.
2) The sneaky hit: disease risk ramps up fast
Rain + humidity near harvest is prime time for bunch rots like Botrytis and other rot issues. Industry guidance is blunt about it: wet, humid conditions can significantly lift rot pressure as you approach harvest, and management becomes all about risk timing and pre-harvest decisions.
Even in table grapes, research-based protocols show how little infection it can take for rots to become a real commercial problem later on. (Different market, same rot reality: once it’s in, it spreads.)
3) The brutal backdrop: the wine industry is already doing it tough
This is the bit that really stings. Many growers are already operating under heavy pressure, prices, contracts, uncertainty, and the market signals have been ugly.
Wine Australia’s reporting has highlighted sales not keeping up with production and rising stock levels.
On top of that, exports fell in 2025 as global demand softened (cost-of-living, wellness trends, and market contraction all playing a role).
So when rain threatens quality or forces harvest delays, it’s not just “weather being weather”, it’s another stress test on an industry that’s already been running hot for a while.
Sultanas (and dried vine fruit): rain is the ultimate “please no”
Sultanas are a different beast because you’re not only harvesting — you’re trying to dry. And rain at the wrong time can turn a neat drying plan into a messy rescue mission.
Here’s what rain can do:
split fruit (especially when it’s close to maturity)
trigger mould and spoilage in humid conditions
slow drying and push out the whole schedule
increase the need for extra handling (and extra cost)
We’ve seen this movie before in Sunraysia: past rain events have caused splitting and significant damage in sultana varieties, with humidity compounding the impact.
Even dried fruit industry material flags rain damage and the way varieties can respond differently when rain hits at the wrong stage.
And if you’ve just sprayed drying oil and you’re banking on consistent warm weather to finish the job… well, “consistent” is not the vibe the forecast is offering right now.
Other crops in the firing line: not everything loves a wet finish
Sunraysia doesn’t just run on grapes and sultanas — there’s plenty of other harvest activity this time of year (and plenty of schedules that don’t like surprise showers).
A rain burst can:
delay picking windows (and push fruit past ideal maturity)
increase fungal/bacterial pressure in crops with tight skins or dense canopies
cause quality downgrades (marking, cracking, staining)
create access problems for machinery and crews
Even if the crop itself handles rain, the biggest headache is often timing + access — you can’t harvest what you can’t get to, and you can’t deliver what you can’t pick.
So… is rain “good” or “bad”?
Classic Sunraysia answer: yes.
We need rain, we love rain, and the broader system benefits from it. But when it lines up with harvest, it becomes one of those “can you just… hold off a week?” moments.
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